Post by Admin on Dec 18, 2019 1:51:11 GMT
Impeachment news stifles media coverage of an economy that last month produced 266,000 jobs with unemployment holding at 3.5 percent, a 50-year record low. The impact of those numbers and what they say about an incumbent president’s hold on the White House is the subject of this column.
Modeling based on the economy already has experts like Yale University professor Ray Fair, political scientist Alan Abramowitz, and Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, calling the 2020 election for Trump. Zandi qualifies his prediction with some “ifs” that could change the equation like a recession, a dip in Trump’s popularity, or a big Democratic turnout.
Nobody knows how impeachment will play out politically, but Democrats are trying to move on with Speaker Pelosi announcing almost simultaneously with articles of impeachment that she had reached a deal with the White House on passing the USMCA, the reworked Trump trade deal, showing Democrats won’t let impeachment keep them from doing the people’s business.
“There is a route for Trump to win re-election that goes something like this,” says Jim Kessler with Third Way, a moderate Democratic Group: “I don’t like Trump and his tweeting and the way he behaves, but Democrats have gone too far left. That’s his route.” Medicare for All and the Green New Deal should be flashing red lights for Democrats, Kessler says.
The way to counter Trump’s strength on the economy is to focus more on jobs. The economy is not as strong as you would think, says Kessler. The growth has mostly been on the coasts and in a few big cities. Between 2012 and 2016, half the counties in America lost jobs. Between 2000 and 2016, the borough of Queens gained more private sector jobs than Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin combined—and that was without Amazon.
When Amazon pulled out of Queens, people cheered. “A week later, when GM left Lordstown, Ohio, people cried,” Kessler told the Daily Beast. “The economy is going well in certain places, and it’s kind of muddling along for everybody else. There still is anxiety. A Democrat can win if they can persuade voters they can be as good or better on the economy than what they’ve experienced under Trump. But if they think a Democrat is a risk to the economy generally and to local jobs, they’ll hold their noses and vote for Trump.”
Modeling based on the economy already has experts like Yale University professor Ray Fair, political scientist Alan Abramowitz, and Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, calling the 2020 election for Trump. Zandi qualifies his prediction with some “ifs” that could change the equation like a recession, a dip in Trump’s popularity, or a big Democratic turnout.
Nobody knows how impeachment will play out politically, but Democrats are trying to move on with Speaker Pelosi announcing almost simultaneously with articles of impeachment that she had reached a deal with the White House on passing the USMCA, the reworked Trump trade deal, showing Democrats won’t let impeachment keep them from doing the people’s business.
“There is a route for Trump to win re-election that goes something like this,” says Jim Kessler with Third Way, a moderate Democratic Group: “I don’t like Trump and his tweeting and the way he behaves, but Democrats have gone too far left. That’s his route.” Medicare for All and the Green New Deal should be flashing red lights for Democrats, Kessler says.
The way to counter Trump’s strength on the economy is to focus more on jobs. The economy is not as strong as you would think, says Kessler. The growth has mostly been on the coasts and in a few big cities. Between 2012 and 2016, half the counties in America lost jobs. Between 2000 and 2016, the borough of Queens gained more private sector jobs than Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin combined—and that was without Amazon.
When Amazon pulled out of Queens, people cheered. “A week later, when GM left Lordstown, Ohio, people cried,” Kessler told the Daily Beast. “The economy is going well in certain places, and it’s kind of muddling along for everybody else. There still is anxiety. A Democrat can win if they can persuade voters they can be as good or better on the economy than what they’ve experienced under Trump. But if they think a Democrat is a risk to the economy generally and to local jobs, they’ll hold their noses and vote for Trump.”
