North Korea's "Christmas Gift" to the U.S.

Go to a campaign event for President Trump and anyone will tell you: “Oh, North Korea? The president solved that a long time ago.” Fact-free zones are not hard to find at political rallies, but the view that three summits with the North Korean leader have solved the North Korean threat is especially worrisome and naive — and North Korea hasn’t even delivered to its promised “Christmas gift” yet.



What North Korea is vowing to send to the United States in December is anyone’s guess at this point. Another intercontinental missile, perhaps, but this time an upgraded one with new generation solid-fuel engines? Perhaps a submarine-launched ballistic missile is being boxed and sent special delivery. Whatever it is, it won’t be wrapped in Christmas paper with a bow tied around it.

For almost two years — that is, since North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s 2018 New Year’s message and subsequent meeting with a delegation from the South Korean government in which he suggested that improved U.S. relations were a priority of his — Trump’s strategy of offering public flattery and indicating he has had nothing less than a man-crush on Kim is not working, nor keeping us safe.



Dangling goodies in front of the North Koreans is nothing new. What the president has been suggesting, after all, is the proposition that North Korea could have a much better future without nuclear weapons than with them. But Trump’s negotiating approach has been starkly different than in the past. During the runup to the first of the three summit meetings, rather than work on tightly sequenced steps toward denuclearization rewarded with increments of sanctions relief, his staff instead put together a music video presentation that purported to demonstrate all the good things that could happen in one of the world’s most backward economies, if only North Korea would come to its senses, make the right decision and turn away from the dark side.

It does not appear that Kim is contemplating any change. What he appears to be doing is abusing the U.S. go-it-alone strategy to ask the world for immediate sanctions relief, a sort of Christmas initiative shopping. What, one might ask, is North Korea prepared to offer? The North Koreans did propose to decommission the main nuclear facility at Yongbyon at the Hanoi Summit in March 2019. But when the U.S. asked for details, the North Koreans failed to respond, saying only that “you will be happy,” and demanded broad sanctions relief.



Could putting Yongbyon on the table have been a start to negotiations? To listen to the U.S. and North Korean negotiators is to suggest they attended different meetings. In fact, U.S. negotiators have been tight-lipped about what, if any, interim offers they have made to the North Koreans. Trump has suggested that what differentiates his approach from those of his predecessors is that he will not go down the road of incrementalism for the sake of incrementalism. Dismantling Yongbyon, in the absence of addressing what appear to be many other nuclear sites, would have fit the definition of incrementalism.

Did the U.S. offer anything in reply? Perhaps narrow sanctions relief in response to what appears to have amounted to a narrow denuclearization offer? Apparently, there was no follow-up. By all accounts, from the last working-level meeting near Stockholm in October, the North Koreans were not impressed by what the U.S. side brought in their suitcases and stormed out, vowing not to talk again.

U.S. military and intelligence officials are reportedly bracing for an imminent test by North Korea of an intercontinental missile as negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang continue to stall.





North Korea has threatened to give the U.S. a “Christmas gift” if no progress is made on lifting sanctions, but officials appear to accept the fact that President Trump has no options to prevent a test, The New York Times reported Saturday.

The North testing a ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S. would mark a major setback for Trump's efforts to rein in Pyongyang's nuclear and missile ambitions, something he has touted as a top foreign policy initiative. It would also come as the president faces major political fallout domestically after the House voted to impeach him this week.





While the president often cites a lull in such testing by North Korea as evidence of his diplomatic prowess, officials told the Times that should North Korean leader Kim Jong Un resume testing, it would mark a sign that the White House is jammed in its options and will be less inclined to lift sanctions.

Military officials told the Times that there are no plans in the works to destroy a missile on the launchpad or intercept it in the atmosphere. The administration is likely to pressure the United Nations Security Council for tightened sanctions in the event of a test, a strategy that for two decades has ultimately failed to blunt Pyongyang’s aggressive rhetoric and progress on its nuclear and missile programs.