Post by Admin on Aug 13, 2020 7:38:59 GMT
Buried inside a midsummer report for Pete Buttigieg’s campaign outlining his own strengths and weaknesses, a few lines crystallized one of the most important developments of the 2020 presidential race: black voters’ relative lack of interest in the black candidates.
“They see potential in her,” Buttigieg’s pollster wrote about Kamala Harris, after interviewing groups of black voters — “but do worry that America won’t elect a black woman.” And for many, Harris’ June debate criticism of Joe Biden on racial issues did not feel sincere.
Months later, with Harris out of the 2020 race and Cory Booker lagging in the polls, the only black candidates in the field are set to miss the next Democratic debate — but Biden, the candidate getting by far the most backing from African American voters, will be center-stage thanks to their support in polls.
That collective choice by black voters so far in this campaign has been one of the most misunderstood dynamics of the Democratic primary. Harris’ campaign and others initially expected South Carolina, with its majority-black Democratic electorate, to be a source of strength for her. But Biden has prevented any other candidate from breaking through there this year, even as his poll numbers have flagged in other, whiter early primary and caucus states.
A review of public polling and interviews with black strategists, activists and Democratic officials explains why African American voters have largely gotten behind non-black candidates: a medley of concerns about Harris’ and Booker’s electability, their authenticity and their campaign styles, all of which prevented them from effectively challenging Biden’s enduring — and, to some, surprising — strength among African Americans.
“The affinity voters in these groups feel for Joe Biden is deep and strong, rooted in his relationship with Barack Obama, who is the ultimate validator,” Buttigieg pollster Katie Connelly wrote in a July report, obtained this fall by McClatchy, that garnered attention for probing how Buttigieg’s sexual orientation was affecting his chase for African American voters. “The power of the Obama association with these voters" was paramount, Connelly added.
While Biden’s backing in largely white Iowa and New Hampshire “appears somewhat shallow,” Connelly continued, the connection black voters in South Carolina felt with Biden “seems harder to break.”
Month after month in 2019, campaign strategists, pundits and the political press would believe that connection was fraying on the back of some new development — a mistake that has persisted to this day, as Biden continues to enjoy strong polling in South Carolina.
“Black candidates make one primary mistake: They assume that they’re going to have the black vote just because they’re black," said Johnnie Cordero, chair of the South Carolina Democratic Black Caucus.
Harris has placed no higher than third among black voters in POLITICO/Morning Consult polls since August, behind Biden and Bernie Sanders, and she trailed Elizabeth Warren in fourth in more recent surveys, including a Quinnipiac poll out of South Carolina.
Booker, too, has consistently polled under 5 percent among black voters in most national polls, and he has not broken much above that threshold since his entry into the presidential race in February. That has contributed to his likely absence from the December debate, which requires showings above 4 percent in qualifying surveys.
“They see potential in her,” Buttigieg’s pollster wrote about Kamala Harris, after interviewing groups of black voters — “but do worry that America won’t elect a black woman.” And for many, Harris’ June debate criticism of Joe Biden on racial issues did not feel sincere.
Months later, with Harris out of the 2020 race and Cory Booker lagging in the polls, the only black candidates in the field are set to miss the next Democratic debate — but Biden, the candidate getting by far the most backing from African American voters, will be center-stage thanks to their support in polls.
That collective choice by black voters so far in this campaign has been one of the most misunderstood dynamics of the Democratic primary. Harris’ campaign and others initially expected South Carolina, with its majority-black Democratic electorate, to be a source of strength for her. But Biden has prevented any other candidate from breaking through there this year, even as his poll numbers have flagged in other, whiter early primary and caucus states.
A review of public polling and interviews with black strategists, activists and Democratic officials explains why African American voters have largely gotten behind non-black candidates: a medley of concerns about Harris’ and Booker’s electability, their authenticity and their campaign styles, all of which prevented them from effectively challenging Biden’s enduring — and, to some, surprising — strength among African Americans.
“The affinity voters in these groups feel for Joe Biden is deep and strong, rooted in his relationship with Barack Obama, who is the ultimate validator,” Buttigieg pollster Katie Connelly wrote in a July report, obtained this fall by McClatchy, that garnered attention for probing how Buttigieg’s sexual orientation was affecting his chase for African American voters. “The power of the Obama association with these voters" was paramount, Connelly added.
While Biden’s backing in largely white Iowa and New Hampshire “appears somewhat shallow,” Connelly continued, the connection black voters in South Carolina felt with Biden “seems harder to break.”
Month after month in 2019, campaign strategists, pundits and the political press would believe that connection was fraying on the back of some new development — a mistake that has persisted to this day, as Biden continues to enjoy strong polling in South Carolina.
“Black candidates make one primary mistake: They assume that they’re going to have the black vote just because they’re black," said Johnnie Cordero, chair of the South Carolina Democratic Black Caucus.
Harris has placed no higher than third among black voters in POLITICO/Morning Consult polls since August, behind Biden and Bernie Sanders, and she trailed Elizabeth Warren in fourth in more recent surveys, including a Quinnipiac poll out of South Carolina.
Booker, too, has consistently polled under 5 percent among black voters in most national polls, and he has not broken much above that threshold since his entry into the presidential race in February. That has contributed to his likely absence from the December debate, which requires showings above 4 percent in qualifying surveys.