Post by Admin on Sept 1, 2020 20:07:19 GMT
Republican President Donald Trump has a slight lead over Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in a tracking poll of Ohio likely voters following the national conventions.
The state is predictably split with rural voters backing Trump and urban voters backing Biden in the latest figures released Monday by Morning Consult. It is another marker that shows a competitive race in Ohio, which Trump won in 2016 by 8 percentage points.
Morning Consult polls daily and uses a 10-day rolling average for state-level head-to-head presidential race results. The sample size for the Ohio poll of likely voters ranges daily from 1,200 to 1,900, which was collected using online surveys they have been tracking since May 5. The daily margin of error ranges between plus-or-minus 2-3 percentage points. Results are weighted by age, gender, education, race, home ownership, marital status, population density and presidential vote history.
The latest figures from Ohio on Aug. 30 show Trump leading Biden 50% to 45%. A little more than 1% say they are supporting someone else while just more than 3% say they are undecided.
According to Morning Consult’s polling, the race – while close – has been very stable despite all the turbulence in the country since May. Trump led most of the time, carrying between 47% and 50% of the vote. Biden’s support in the poll has varied slightly more, generally ranging between 43% and 47%.
Part of the reason for Trump’s solid showing in the poll comes down to four Demographic groups Democrats are hoping to make gains with this year: suburban voters, college-educated white voters, independents and women.
According to the poll, suburban voters slightly prefer Trump at 50% compared to Biden at 45%. Urban voters skew heavily to Biden at 69% while rural voters skew heavily to Trump at 63%.
Among college-educated white Ohioans, likely voters are split at 48% for both candidates, according to the poll.
Trump had a strong showing with independents, 46% of whom said they supported the president. Only 40% of the same group said they supported Biden.
However, arguably the best news out of the survey for Trump was his support among women voters, expected to be a weak point in his presidential campaign. According to the survey, 54% of likely women voters backed Trump, while only 42% supported Biden. Biden performed better with men at 49% to Trump at 46%. This is a deviation from other polls, which consistently show Biden with more support among women than men and Trump having more support among men than women.
The Morning Consult polling is just one data point and likely will shift as the candidates are done with the conventions and head into the start of the traditional election season in September. The largest upcoming political event will be the first presidential debate slated for Cleveland on Sept. 29.
The state is predictably split with rural voters backing Trump and urban voters backing Biden in the latest figures released Monday by Morning Consult. It is another marker that shows a competitive race in Ohio, which Trump won in 2016 by 8 percentage points.
Morning Consult polls daily and uses a 10-day rolling average for state-level head-to-head presidential race results. The sample size for the Ohio poll of likely voters ranges daily from 1,200 to 1,900, which was collected using online surveys they have been tracking since May 5. The daily margin of error ranges between plus-or-minus 2-3 percentage points. Results are weighted by age, gender, education, race, home ownership, marital status, population density and presidential vote history.
The latest figures from Ohio on Aug. 30 show Trump leading Biden 50% to 45%. A little more than 1% say they are supporting someone else while just more than 3% say they are undecided.
According to Morning Consult’s polling, the race – while close – has been very stable despite all the turbulence in the country since May. Trump led most of the time, carrying between 47% and 50% of the vote. Biden’s support in the poll has varied slightly more, generally ranging between 43% and 47%.
Part of the reason for Trump’s solid showing in the poll comes down to four Demographic groups Democrats are hoping to make gains with this year: suburban voters, college-educated white voters, independents and women.
According to the poll, suburban voters slightly prefer Trump at 50% compared to Biden at 45%. Urban voters skew heavily to Biden at 69% while rural voters skew heavily to Trump at 63%.
Among college-educated white Ohioans, likely voters are split at 48% for both candidates, according to the poll.
Trump had a strong showing with independents, 46% of whom said they supported the president. Only 40% of the same group said they supported Biden.
However, arguably the best news out of the survey for Trump was his support among women voters, expected to be a weak point in his presidential campaign. According to the survey, 54% of likely women voters backed Trump, while only 42% supported Biden. Biden performed better with men at 49% to Trump at 46%. This is a deviation from other polls, which consistently show Biden with more support among women than men and Trump having more support among men than women.
The Morning Consult polling is just one data point and likely will shift as the candidates are done with the conventions and head into the start of the traditional election season in September. The largest upcoming political event will be the first presidential debate slated for Cleveland on Sept. 29.