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Post by Admin on Oct 27, 2020 5:35:09 GMT
A poll by Rasmussen Reports has US President Donald Trump leading Democrat nominee Joe Biden by 48 to 47 percent nationally, according to their report Monday.
Two percent remained undecided, and three percent said they preferred another candidate. The survey was conducted from October 21, 22 and 25, pooling 1,500 likely voters.
Rasmussen published polls last Wednesday that showed Biden leading 49 percent over the president's 46 percent. A week before, the difference was 12 percent in Biden's favor.
The vast majority of polls conducted recently have likewise shown the former vice president, Biden, leading Trump.
According to the new polls, Trump is preferred by 84 percent of Republicans, while Biden is preferred by 77 percent of Democrats. Seven percent more who remained unaffiliated prefer Biden.
Trump is over Biden in Florida by 49 to 46 percent, and in Michigan by 49 to 47 percent. Biden leads in Arizona, another perennial battleground state, by 48 to 46 percent.Rasmussen Reports said the margin of error was plus minus two-and-a-half percent "with a 95 percent confidence."
A poll last week by the American Jewish Committee said that Biden led among Jewish voters by 75 percent to 22 percent. Earlier in October, a Pew poll showed Biden leading 67 percent to 30 percent.
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Post by Admin on Oct 27, 2020 19:32:16 GMT
The Trump campaign has uploaded an ad to Facebook in which it appeared to imply that the president won reelection. Facebook has said it would ban ads declaring early victory.
The ad features President Trump's face overlayed on a sun rising over green hills, as well as on a hummingbird in the foreground. CNBC first reported on the ad. The ad features audio that states "it's morning in America. Donald J. Trump is still president of the United States." Flowers surrounding the hummingbird then scream "No!" The ad is reminiscent of imagery featured in the children's TV show "Teletubbies," which showed a sun superimposed with the face of a baby.
The ad's messaging is ambiguous — stating that Trump "is still president of the United States" would technically be true until Inauguration Day in January. But the ad exposes the tactics deployed by campaigns to circumvent Facebook's policies as the social media platform continues to face pressure for its handling of political disinformation and election interference.
Facebook said in early October that it would stop accepting political ads the week before the election, and would ban them indefinitely after the polls close. Ads needed to run at last once before Tuesday to escape the ban and to be approved in Facebook's ad library. The company also said in late September that it would ban ads that prematurely declare victory.
The change in policies led to campaigns and organizations creating ads that could be approved in Facebook's ad library and promoted at a later date — and this isn't the first time that the Trump campaign has used the work-around. Forbes reported that the campaign preemptively created ads touting GDP figures before they've been released, as well as ads that declare "Election Day is Today" that presumably will run on November 3.
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Post by Admin on Oct 27, 2020 22:29:29 GMT
Several weeks ago, presidential opinion polls showed Joe Biden with a double-digit lead over Donald Trump, like the supposed lead Hillary Clinton enjoyed four years ago. Despite prognostications of an almost certain Clinton victory, reality provided a different story ending.
Will the big media be right this election cycle, or are they repeating their folly from the last election?
Rasmussen Reports, one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2016 election, shows a significant narrowing in its White House Watch poll, from a 12-point Biden lead two weeks ago to a 3-point lead a week ago. Now it’s Trump by one.
In the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, comparing Trump’s job approval today with Obama eight years ago, they have about the same approval numbers, varying by a point or two. Obama won his reelection eight years ago easily. Rasmussen also shows Trump holding a three-point lead over Biden in crucial Florida. In other key states, Rasmussen found Biden up by two points in Ohio with Trump up by one point in North Carolina, a toss-up as far as polls go.
Other polls echo Rasmussen Reports. The most recent IBD/TIPP presidential poll also demonstrates a tightening race with Biden now leading Trump by only 2.3 points, well within the margin of error.
Gallup finds Trump’s job approval rating at 46%, close to his all-time high of 49% several times earlier this year. And asking an important question of not who you want to win but instead who you think will win, Trump tops Biden 56% to 40%.
When Gallup asked registered voters, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”, 56% of registered voter said yes, compared to only 32% saying no.
Trafalgar Group correctly predicted Trump winning key battleground states in 2016, and for 2020 they are forecasting Trump’s reelection. They project a minimum of high 270s in Electoral College votes, “possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this [hidden vote] undercurrent is.”
Chief Trafalgar Group pollster Robert Cahaly explains their methodology. Aside from shorter and simpler surveys, they measured the “neighbor question” - who do you think your neighbor is voting for?
Although blacks comprise only 13% of the U.S. population, they have voted almost exclusively for Democrat presidential candidates. No recent Republican presidential candidate garnered more than 10% of the black vote, Trump winning only eight percent in 2016.
This year may be different. As The Washington Post asked recently, “What’s happening out there with black men and Trump?” Support from rappers Ice Cube and 50 Cent can’t hurt.
Are polls again this year understating Trump’s support? Cato Institute found that 62 percent of Americans have political views they are afraid to share, including 77 percent of conservatives. Only staunch libers feel they can freely express themselves. That includes to pollsters.
Then there is the energy and enthusiasm of the two campaigns. Joe Biden on Sunday called “a lid” on his campaign with no more in-person campaigning until the election - after he claimed to be running against George Bush.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, is holding two or three rallies a day, increasing to four or five per daily in the final days of the campaign, each rally drawing tens of thousands of supporters.
Unmeasured by any pollster are the local outpourings of Trump support, unrelated to official rallies, especially in Democrat strongholds like Beverly Hills, Brooklyn, and New Jersey. Conservative Treehouse posted a collection of tweets showing huge parades and rallies in electorally blue territory, in contrast to Harris/Biden events which can’t draw more than a few dozen attendees.
There appears to be a palpable shift in electoral momentum in the final weeks before the election. But the ultimate poll on Election Day will be the final arbiter.
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Post by Admin on Oct 30, 2020 3:58:28 GMT
 With six days until Election Day, President Donald Trump has inched ahead of Joe Biden in Florida polling, according to a RealClearPolitics moving average of surveys focused on the crucial swing state. Trump is due to fly into the Sunshine State on Wednesday night and campaign there Thursday after speaking this afternoon at two rallies in Arizona, another battleground state. One of those rallies — taking place in Bullhead City, Ariz., near the Arizona-Nevada state line — is also aimed at voters in Nevada. Meanwhile, Biden on Wednesday attacked Trump’s handling of the coronavirus crisis and other health-care matters, as he delivered a speech that was live-streamed from Delaware. And his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris of California, was countering Trump’s events in Arizona with her own visit to the state. Biden continues to lead Trump in RCP’s polling average focused on top swing states that are likely to decide the Nov. 3 election. He is up by 3.8 percentage points as of Wednesday, down from 4.1 points a week ago, and betting markets give him a 64.3% chance of winning the White House race vs. Trump’s 34.7%. But RCP was giving the president a 0.4-point advantage in Florida as of late Tuesday, the first time that Trump’s had an edge in the state since April, after new Susquehanna and Rasmussen surveys favored him. Separately, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Wednesday changed its rating for Texas in the presidential election to “Toss Up” from “Lean R.” The newsletter’s analysts said Trump’s path to winning 270 electoral votes has narrowed. In addition, the Trump campaign was drawing flak in the wake of a rally on Tuesday night in Nebraska. Hundreds of people who attended the event in Omaha spent up to three hours in freezing temperatures waiting for buses to take them back to their cars, according to an Omaha World-Herald report. |
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