The Kuril islands dispute between Russia and Japan

Not everyone was happy about the three-hour long talks between Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe which took place in Russia’s Black Sea resort of Sochi on Friday.

Kuril islands dispute. While for Abe the meeting was diplomatically significant — a chance to discuss the disputed Kuril islands face-to-face with Putin — for the White House, it was an unwelcome fissure in the united front Washington has instructed its allies to construct against Moscow. It was so unwelcome, in fact, that Barack Obama had reportedly asked Abe personally not to go to Sochi at all.



Island diplomacy
The long-running dispute between Russia and Japan over ownership of the Kuril island chain meant that the two countries never signed a peace treaty after World War II. Russia claims ownership of the strategically important territory under the 1945 Yalta accord and argues that the islands — which Russia refers to as the Southern Kurils and Japan knows as the Northern Territories — were handed over to the Soviet Union with Washington’s blessing. Japan disputes this.

The Kremlin kept expectations low for the meeting between the two leaders in Sochi. Russia has plans to build up its military assets on the islands and has singled the territory out for significant socio-economic development. Frankly, no one expects that Putin will suddenly decide to give the islands up — not even Abe.

Nonetheless, Abe believes that if anything will help soften Russia’s stance over the dispute, it will be increased economic and technological cooperation between Moscow and Tokyo, which could help revitalize the Russian Far East. Most observers say, however, that despite Russia’s economic woes, Abe’s hand is weak.



Displeasing Washington
But, let the reader not be fooled into believing that the Russia-Japan relationship is to be controlled only by Moscow and Tokyo. The US, naturally, also wants its say. The problem for Japan — a major US ally — is that the diplomacy surrounding the islands dispute is so important, that Tokyo has had to show a rare willingness to go against Washington.

Abe knows that to curry favor with Putin, he must display that he, not the White House, is in control of Japan’s foreign policy. This has been difficult, given the obvious pressure from the US, but it seems to be a risk that Abe is willing to take — even given the awkward timing of the meeting just ahead of a G7 summit in Japan later this month. His refusal to sour his relationship with Putin, has obviously put yet another spanner in the works where US efforts to ‘isolate’ Moscow are concerned.

After rejecting Obama’s request not to meet with Putin, the level of pressure from the US was revealed when Abe sent a top security official to Washington to explain why the meeting in Sochi must go ahead. It remains baffling that Tokyo should feel obliged to provide such a courtesy.



Positive signs?
Abe’s wording after the conclusion of his meeting with Putin was interesting. Without much elaboration, he said that the two leaders had agreed on a new approach to resolving the dispute over the Kuril islands. He noted that the peace treaty issue would be resolved “by ourselves” and that Japan would pursue a “future-oriented” relationship with Russia “free of any past ideas”. This kind of talk is not exactly music to Washington’s ears, to say the least. Abe is also believed to have presented Putin with an eight-point plan to strengthen their countries’ ties. No date has been set for Putin’s visit to Japan, but the Japanese prime minister has been invited back to Russia for the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok in September.

Abe is not stupid. Even if he gets nowhere on the Kurils issue, he knows that balancing the Russia-China relationship is beneficial regardless. Signs so far indicate he is willing to risk displeasing the US in Japan’s better interests.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to Russia will take place before Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Tokyo, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov said on Friday. "We expect Mr Abe to visit us first," Morgulov said answering a question on possible dates of Putin’s visit to Japan.



The leaders of Russia and Japan met in Sochi at the beginning of May. Soon after the meeting, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov said that Putin may visit Tokyo by the end of 2016.



On June 22 another round of consultations was held in Tokyo on issues of peace treaty between Russia and Japan. Among participants in talks were Japanese government's envoy for relations with Russia Tikahito Harada and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov. The new round of talks on peace treaty may take place before the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok scheduled for September 2-3.