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Post by Admin on Nov 4, 2016 18:29:17 GMT
President Obama won 93% of the black vote, according to 2012 exit polls. He won 100% in some precincts in Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Chicago and other cities. He won 98% of the vote in Wayne County’s biggest city, Detroit. In a recent Detroit Free Press/WXYZ-TV poll, no black voters in the survey backed Trump. Clinton faces a very different challenge when it comes to her party’s most lopsided supporters: maximizing their vote in battlegrounds like Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. There is no group where the rise and fall in turnout has a more direct impact on elections because its vote goes almost entirely to one side. But Clinton doesn't generate the enthusiasm Obama did. In the president’s re-election, black turnout surpassed white turnout, according to census surveys. One election night key to watch: whether Clinton gets fewer votes than Obama in counties with sizable black populations such as Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Cuyahoga, Ohio (Cleveland).
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Post by Admin on Nov 5, 2016 18:41:52 GMT
Republican nominee Donald Trump is tied with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in Michigan, according to a Strategic National Poll. The Michigan statewide poll revealed Trump is now dead even with Clinton, in a state that has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Trump and Clinton both received 44 percent support from respondents in a poll conducted Nov. 3, which was obtained by The Daily Caller News Foundation. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received 4 percent support, while Green party nominee Jill Stein received 3 percent. One percent of the respondents said that they were supporting someone else, and five percent said they were still undecided.
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Post by Admin on Nov 7, 2016 18:35:04 GMT
Arizona was not expected to be a tossup state in 2016, having voted Republican for president in every election but one since the 1960s. But right now it’s more competitive than some perennial swing states, inviting a late Clinton ad blitz. One big reason: a Latino backlash against Trump’s hard line on immigration and his comments about Mexican-Americans. Something similar has happened in Texas, where the Republican margin is far slimmer than in previous races. Polls give Clinton a more than 2-to-1 lead among Latinos in Arizona. Once again, turnout is the x-factor. Four years ago, Latinos made up 30% of the population in massive Maricopa County (home to Phoenix), but only an estimated 15% of the votes cast. Latinos have lower rates of citizenship and lower rates of voting, diluting their political clout. One election night key to watch: whether Latinos match the share of the total vote they represented in the 2012 national exit poll (10%) and in critical states like Florida (17%), Nevada (19%) and Arizona (18%). Young voters have no perceived champion in this race: Obama is off the ballot and Democrat Bernie Sanders lost his party’s nomination. Clinton has struggled to mobilize and inspire them. Young voters here and elsewhere have been slow to embrace either nominee, raising questions about how many will stay home or vote third party. No part of the “Obama Coalition” has been softer for Clinton, whose relationship with millennials has been a “complicated” one, according to John Della Volpe, a pollster for Harvard’s Institute of Politics. He found some signs of progress for her in a national poll Harvard released last week. Clinton easily led Trump 49% to 21% among voters 18 to 29. But that left almost a third of young voters preferring a third-party candidate (14% for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 5% for the Green Party’s Jill Stein) or undecided (11%). While views of Clinton had improved after the July conventions, they were still more negative than positive among young voters. One election night key to watch: whether the under-30 vote matches its share of the national vote in 2012 (19%) and whether Clinton wins those voters by a margin similar to Obama’s (23 points).
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Post by Admin on Nov 8, 2016 18:28:21 GMT
Hillary Clinton is the favorite to win Tuesday’s presidential election. But the race has tightened of late in both national and swing state polls, and there’s been increasing chatter suggesting that Clinton’s “firewall” protecting an electoral college majority could be in danger. The big picture, though, is that Clinton has two broad paths toward reaching 270 electoral votes: 1) Holding her six “firewall” states: Virginia, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. Those states, combined with the solidly Democratic states, would give her the presidency. 2) If she loses one or more firewall states, she’d likely have to make up for those losses with similarly-sized wins in one or more of the following: Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida — the diverse toss-up state trio.
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