Donald Trump: Make America Great Again

Following the return of Trump, who advocated tax cuts and an active fiscal policy in the US presidential election, the financial market has become more risk-taking, resulting in a "Trump market" with a weak yen and high stock prices. However, if Trump, who advocates "America First," implements measures such as strengthening tariffs, the global economy will become more uncertain and the market outlook will become difficult to predict.

The market has been undergoing a "Trump trade" in which interest rates rise, the dollar rises, and stock prices rise simultaneously, even before the election day on November 5th. Due to the strength of the US economy, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond, which was in the 3.7% range at the beginning of October, has risen to the 4.4% range recently. The dollar-yen exchange rate has risen by more than 10 yen in about a month, with the yen weakening and the dollar strengthening.

Tighter tariffs, measures against illegal immigration, and the permanentization of the "Trump tax cuts" that were realized during his first term are all likely to cause price increases (inflation). If the economy overheats due to fiscal stimulus, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at a slower pace, which has led to a rise in long-term interest rates. Dollar-based assets, which offer higher interest rates, have been bought.