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Post by Admin on Sept 15, 2015 19:55:36 GMT
In ramping up its military involvement in Syria's civil war, Russia appears to be betting that the West, horrified by the Islamic State group's spread and an escalating migrants crisis, may be willing to quietly tolerate President Bashar Assad for a while, perhaps as part of a transition. The logic is that prioritizing the fight with the jihadis means accepting Assad as the less bad option despite his own brutal acts, and might produce a more effective and coordinated fight in the air and on the ground. It also would reorganize an awkward situation in Syria, whereby the Assad regime and the U.S.-led coalition are actively fighting the same group but do not act like allies — as opposed to coordination the coalition maintains with the central Baghdad authorities in the parallel fight against Islamic State group in neighboring Iraq. A longtime backer of Syria's government, Moscow has recently increased its military activity in Syria, sending military advisers, technicians and security guards with the main goal of setting up an air base near the coastal town of Latakia, a stronghold of the Syrian president. There are reports that the Russians had flown in troops and modular housing units. And Israel's defense minister, Moshe Yaalon, says he expects Russians to be fighting alongside Assad's troops. Even more than the concurrent assistance by Iran and proxy Shiite militias on behalf of Assad, Russian military intervention could potentially be a game changer in the Syrian conflict, tipping the scales in a spectacularly ruinous civil war that has killed a quarter of a million people and created a massive global humanitarian crisis. The degree and speed of the impact depends on scale. And there is also a chance that the Russian efforts could prolong the bloodshed, counteracting the various U.S. efforts to train and arm palatable rebel groups. A true Russian buildup could complicate future American military action in Syria, including a safe zone along the Turkish border which has been discussed with Ankara. While neither the U.S. nor its Saudi allies currently preoccupied with the war in Yemen are likely to openly confront the Russian deployment, both are likely to respond by stepping up their aid to anti-Assad rebels. It also carries risks for Russia, where memories of its 1980s struggles against Islamic fundamentalists in Afghanistan still sting: an increased Russian presence may itself become a target for Syrian opposition and jihadi elements. Moscow may also be trying to ensure it has a say in a future political settlement, as ideas percolate around the region. There are reports that Egypt, an erstwhile ally of Russia and China, is considering a rapprochement with Assad.
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Post by Admin on Sept 17, 2015 20:30:07 GMT
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Wednesday that the Russian government had proposed holding "military-to-military" talks with the United States regarding the Syrian conflict, an option that the administration is studying. In remarks to reporters after meeting with his South African counterpart, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, Kerry confirmed that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made the proposal in a telephone conversation on Tuesday and that the White House and both the Defense and State Departments are studying it. The secretary of state suggested that he is in favor of holding talks with Russia with the aim of learning what Moscow's intentions are in Syria after sending a large amount of Russian weaponry to the Syrian government headed by President Bashar al Assad. "The Russians proposed in the conversation I had today and the last conversation specifically that we have military-to-military conversation and meeting in order to discuss ... precisely what will be done to de-conflict with respect to any potential risks that might be run, and to have a complete and clear understanding as to the road ahead and what the intentions are," Kerry said. In the conversation, Kerry said he expressed the U.S. disagreement with the aid Russia is providing to the Syrian government and he reiterated to Lavrov the U.S. "commitment" to create a coalition of more than 60 countries to combat the Islamic State, a coalition of which he said Assad could never be a credible member. The United States would welcome a constructive role by Russia in the efforts to fight the IS, said Kerry, adding that there is no "military solution" to the Syrian conflict, but rather it can only be resolved by having a political transition without Assad.
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Post by Admin on Sept 25, 2015 20:23:20 GMT
President Obama has not met one-on-one with President Vladimir Putin for more than 15 months but agreed Thursday to sit down with the Russian leader in New York on Monday as part of a broader effort to resolve the conflicts in Syria and Ukraine. The session, which will take place on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly next week, acknowledges Putin’s considerable influence on the world stage, despite a lengthy effort by the administration to punish Russia, diplomatically and economically, for its annexation of Crimea last year and for its support of the forces that have seized portions of Ukraine. Josh Earnest said that the meeting came at Putin’s request and that at the top of the agenda for Obama will be Ukraine, where, he said, Russian separatist troops remain in “clear violation of the territorial integrity of that sovereign nation.” Celeste Wallander, the National Security Council’s senior director for Russia and Eurasia, said the “face-to-face” talk between Obama and Putin would give them a chance to discuss not only the situation in Ukraine, but also what Russia is willing to do to counter Islamist extremism and forge a resolution to the conflict in Syria.
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Post by Admin on Sept 27, 2015 20:22:22 GMT
Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses the United Nations on Monday, and everyone wants to hear what he has to say about Russian intentions in Syria. Over the last week, a flood of satellite images has depicted the Russian military's growing presence on the Syrian coast -- an area still held by the Bashar al-Assad regime, but under growing threat. The Russians have also stepped up supplies of advanced military hardware and trainers to the Syrian regime. The main airport, some 25 kilometers (15 miles) south of Latakia, now resembles a military base, according to the images, which show top-of-the range Sukhoi Fencer fighter jets and T-90 tanks, transport and attack helicopters, fuel dumps and hardened shelters. According to IHS Jane's Intelligence Review, the satellite photographs show nearly 30 combat aircraft in theater. Two other sites near Latakia are also being developed. Local reports speak of an influx of Russians at hotels in Latakia, who will only say that they fly cargo planes -- presumably the giant Ilyushin Il-76s and Antonov An-124s that are bringing in much of the equipment. But why would Russia want to become involved in the Syrian imbroglio -- a conflict which has confounded everyone who has tried to influence it? Is it to defend an ally, al-Assad, and force the West to talk with him? To protect its own access to the Mediterranean? As part of a deal with Iran to tip the balance against Sunni rebel groups? Because it wants to join the international coalition against ISIS? Or -- as one commentator puts it colorfully -- to "stick it to the United States"?
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Post by Admin on Sept 29, 2015 20:00:14 GMT
The 70th anniversary session of the UN General Assembly in New York was the focal point of the Russian media, which sought to determine the possible implications of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s New York visit for Russia’s relationship with the West. A new controversy over Russian planes being banned from Ukrainian airspace also made headlines, as did the opening of a large mosque in Moscow. Last week it was reported that Putin and his American counterpart Barack Obama would indeed meet on the sidelines of the 70th anniversary session of the UN General Assembly. Syria is set to dominate the agenda of the meeting. Business daily Vedomosti believes that Russia has finally managed to supplant the “Ukraine question” from the agenda of top-level gatherings. However, the newspaper is less confident that the country will be able to build on that achievement. Citing top Russian expert Fyodor Lukyanov, Vedomosti points to the deadlocked negotiations on Ukraine, yet highlights the prospect of finding common ground on Syria. On Sept. 28 Vladimir Putin addressed the UN General Assembly. However, the media has been postulating about what the Russian leader will say for more than a month. But last week the speculation went into overdrive. Business daily Kommersant analyzes Putin’s interview with U.S. journalist Charlie Rose for the news program “60 Minutes” in the run-up to the UN session. Putin hinted that his speech would touch upon the future of the United Nations, Russia’s vision of international relations and the fight against radicalism in the Middle East. The publication is in no doubt that the focus will be on Syria and the Middle East.
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