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Post by Admin on Jul 3, 2024 16:33:17 GMT
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Post by Admin on Jul 3, 2024 16:34:05 GMT
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Post by Admin on Jul 3, 2024 16:34:59 GMT
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Post by Admin on Jul 3, 2024 22:02:03 GMT
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Post by Admin on Jul 4, 2024 2:56:02 GMT
On the eve of the election, Focaldata in partnership with Prolific can reveal our final seat forecast of the 2024 general election. We find Labour on course for a 238-seat majority, a record-breaking result that sees the party winning 444 seats, based on a 40% share of the national vote (-1.4pp since our last drop). The Conservatives are expected to win in 108 constituencies (-2 since our last drop), based on a 23.2% vote share (+0.2pp).  The most likely winner has changed in 30 seats since our last forecast. A large majority of these constituencies are highly marginal, with margins of victory as razor-thin as 0.003pp (Lichfield). However, eight constituencies have changed hands with non-trivial vote share leads since our last forecast. These include Bicester and Woodstock; Chesham and Amersham; Chippingham – all now predicted to be Liberal Democrat pickups from the Conservatives; Alloa and Grangemouth, and East Renfrewshire – Labour gains from the SNP; Sittingbourne and Sheppey, and Wyre Forest – Labour pickups off the Conservatives; and the SNP is now forecast to keep hold of Kilmarnock and Loudoun. Reform UK are ahead in 2 seats (Ashfield and Boston and Skegness) instead of the single seat we forecast last week. Clacton is too close to call with 1.6pp between Conservatives and Reform UK. We see Reform UK reaching a 16% national vote share (+0.5pp). The Liberal Democrats are forecast to win an additional 7 seats since our last model, including Witney, Stratford-on-Avon and South Cotswolds. |
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