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Post by Admin on Jul 3, 2024 18:16:04 GMT
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Post by Admin on Jul 3, 2024 18:17:22 GMT
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Post by Admin on Jul 4, 2024 2:52:05 GMT
In an interview with Reuters, Farage, leader of Britain's right-wing party Reform UK, expressed his intention to challenge the status quo in British politics, calling the general election to be held on the 4th the first step.
Although he expressed a cautious view of his chances of being elected for the first time, taking into account his previous seven unsuccessful elections, he predicted the probability to be over 50%.
Mr Farage is looking ahead to the long term, with his sights set on the next election in five years. "This is the first important step towards our long-term aim of creating a mass movement for common sense across the UK as we look ahead to 2029."
For him, the success of Reform UK is that in five years' time, it will be the catalyst for a "dramatic realignment" of Britain's centre-right that the "silent majority" want.
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Post by Admin on Jul 4, 2024 5:28:00 GMT
A month ago we identified five wildcard candidates - Nigel Farage, Jeremy Corbyn, Faiza Shaheen, Lee Anderson and George Galloway - where applying the uniform national swing didn't make sense because of the particular local circumstances. The model generated obviously nonsensical results for these candidates in their constituencies which failed to take exceptional factors into account. We have in these five constituencies applied a local overlay to the model where specific constituency polling was available (Weighting for Survation) or use MRP extrapolations to revise the baseline for the seat and then applied the model timeshifted appropriately. This results in our model making the following projections on the eve of voting:
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Post by Admin on Jul 4, 2024 8:51:54 GMT
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