Post by Admin on Nov 23, 2013 22:50:23 GMT
Japan’s imperial ambitions in East Asia inexorably collided with Western interests in the region, and Japan’s alliance with Nazi Germany, though of little operational significance, further alienated the Western powers. The Pacific War arose out of Japan’s aggression in Southeast Asia, which was presaged by its occupation of southern Indochina in July 1941.
Had Tokyo confined its aggression to Northeast Asia, it almost certainly could have avoided war with Britain and the United States, neither of which was prepared to go to war over China. The U.S. insistence, after Japanese forces moved into southern Indochina, that Japan evacuate China as well as Indochina, as a condition for the restoration of trade relations, thus made no sense as a means of dissuading the Japanese from moving south. On the contrary, the demand that Japan quit China killed any prospect of a negotiated alternative to Japan’s conquest of Southeast Asia (e.g., restored trade in exchange for Japan’s withdrawal from Indochina). In effect, the United States went to war over China rather than Southeast Asia—a volte-face of enormous strategic consequence since it propelled the United States into a war with Japan over a remote country for which the United States had never been prepared to fight. The fate of China, even of Southeast Asia, did not engage core U.S. security interests, especially at a time when Europe’s fate hung in the balance. A war with Japan was, of course, a war the United States was always going to win, but Japan was not the enemy the Roosevelt administration wanted to fight. The United States could have settled its accounts with Japan after Hitler’s defeat had been assured. Was denying Japan an expanded empire in Southeast Asia more important, in 1941, than defeating Hitler?
The roots of Japan’s decision for war with the United States were economic and reputational. The termination of U.S. trade with Japan that followed Roosevelt’s freezing of Japanese assets in July 1941 threatened to destroy Japan economically and militarily. A small, resource-poor, and overpopulated island state, Japan in the 1930s sought economic self-sufficiency and great power status via the acquisition of empire—just as Great Britain had done. (The United States could preach about the evils of imperialism and “spheres of influence” because, as a huge, resource-rich, continental state, it had no need for an overseas colonial empire; nor was its hegemony in the Western Hemisphere effectively challenged by other great powers. Indeed, the Japanese viewed the Monroe Doctrine as justification for their imperial ambitions.) Kenneth Pyle, in his masterful assessment of modern Japan’s behavior in the evolving international system, identifies “a persistent obsession with status and prestige—or, to put it in terms Japanese would more readily recognize, rank and honor.”122 From the time of the Meiji Restoration in 1868, “Japan strove and struggled for status as a great power. Other countries in Asia were aware of their backwardness, but nowhere else was this awareness so intense and so paramount that it drove a people with such singleminded determination. It became a national obsession to be the equal of the world’s great powers.”123 A fusion of state-centered honor and popular nationalism occurred in Japan that prompted “an instinctive need for recognition of its status in the hierarchy of nations, and the values of hierarchy provided a behavioral norm that focused and intensified the realist drive for national power. Establishment of Japan’s honor, of its reputation for power in relation to other nations, became a goal sanctioned by inherited values and and norms.”124
Yet the end result of this drive for power, honor, and reputation was Japan’s complete destruction and subsequent occupation by the United States. There can be no justification for a foreign policy that consciously propels a state into a war against an inherently undefeatable enemy. By the late 1930s, a fatal abyss had opened between Japan’s imperial ambitions and its material capacity to fulfill them. Japan simply did not have the resources to police Korea and Manchuria, conquer China, invade Southeast Asia, and defeat the United States in the Pacific. Japan lacked the necessary industrial strength, and what modest manufacturing base it did possess critically depended on imported oil and other commodities from the United States. Indeed, Japan’s expanding war on the Asian mainland made it more dependent on imported U.S. commodities and finished goods. Japanese leaders refused to recognize the limits of Japan’s power, despite the warnings of Nomohan and a continuing war in China they could never bring to a satisfactory conclusion. The very fact that Japanese leaders would consider sequential wars with the United States and the Soviet Union at a time when Japan was already militarily overstretched in China testifies to a fatal blindness to the strategic necessity of maintaining some reasonable harmony between political ambitions and military capacity. Like the Germans in both world wars, the Japanese seemed to believe that superior prowess at the operational level of war could and would—somehow—redeem reckless strategic decisions.125 And again like the Germans, the Japanese, in the celebration of their own nationalism, were utterly insensitive to the nationalism of others.
Honor may have dictated the Japanese decision for war in 1941, but “suicide before dishonor” was a policy choice the Japanese might have avoided had Tokyo been willing and able to temper its imperial ambitions and accept some measure of economic dependence on the United States. For Japan, the prosperous and relatively democratic 1920s and the postwar decades as an economic powerhouse and ally of the United States demonstrate 20th-century possibilities other than the path of autarky through aggression. The 1930s and 1940s were a tragic and—for Japan’s victims—murderous detour from what might have been—and later was. For Japan in the 20th century, good relations with the United States were always a prerequisite for a secure Japan, whereas war with the United States was always going to be a disaster.
Still, it cannot be denied that, in threatening Japan’s economic destruction (and consequent military impoverishment), the United States placed the Japanese in a position in which the only choices open to them were war or subservience. “Never inflict upon another major military power a policy which would cause you yourself to go to war unless you are fully prepared to engage that power militarily,” cautions Roland Worth, Jr., in his No Choice But War: The United States Embargo against Japan and the Eruption of War in the Pacific. “And don’t be surprised that if they do decide to retaliate, that they seek out a time and a place that inflicts maximum harm and humiliation upon your cause.”126 Roosevelt called the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor “unprovoked.” Was it?
Record, Jeffrey. Japan's decision for war in 1941: some enduring lessons. Strategic Studies Institute, 2009.
Had Tokyo confined its aggression to Northeast Asia, it almost certainly could have avoided war with Britain and the United States, neither of which was prepared to go to war over China. The U.S. insistence, after Japanese forces moved into southern Indochina, that Japan evacuate China as well as Indochina, as a condition for the restoration of trade relations, thus made no sense as a means of dissuading the Japanese from moving south. On the contrary, the demand that Japan quit China killed any prospect of a negotiated alternative to Japan’s conquest of Southeast Asia (e.g., restored trade in exchange for Japan’s withdrawal from Indochina). In effect, the United States went to war over China rather than Southeast Asia—a volte-face of enormous strategic consequence since it propelled the United States into a war with Japan over a remote country for which the United States had never been prepared to fight. The fate of China, even of Southeast Asia, did not engage core U.S. security interests, especially at a time when Europe’s fate hung in the balance. A war with Japan was, of course, a war the United States was always going to win, but Japan was not the enemy the Roosevelt administration wanted to fight. The United States could have settled its accounts with Japan after Hitler’s defeat had been assured. Was denying Japan an expanded empire in Southeast Asia more important, in 1941, than defeating Hitler?
The roots of Japan’s decision for war with the United States were economic and reputational. The termination of U.S. trade with Japan that followed Roosevelt’s freezing of Japanese assets in July 1941 threatened to destroy Japan economically and militarily. A small, resource-poor, and overpopulated island state, Japan in the 1930s sought economic self-sufficiency and great power status via the acquisition of empire—just as Great Britain had done. (The United States could preach about the evils of imperialism and “spheres of influence” because, as a huge, resource-rich, continental state, it had no need for an overseas colonial empire; nor was its hegemony in the Western Hemisphere effectively challenged by other great powers. Indeed, the Japanese viewed the Monroe Doctrine as justification for their imperial ambitions.) Kenneth Pyle, in his masterful assessment of modern Japan’s behavior in the evolving international system, identifies “a persistent obsession with status and prestige—or, to put it in terms Japanese would more readily recognize, rank and honor.”122 From the time of the Meiji Restoration in 1868, “Japan strove and struggled for status as a great power. Other countries in Asia were aware of their backwardness, but nowhere else was this awareness so intense and so paramount that it drove a people with such singleminded determination. It became a national obsession to be the equal of the world’s great powers.”123 A fusion of state-centered honor and popular nationalism occurred in Japan that prompted “an instinctive need for recognition of its status in the hierarchy of nations, and the values of hierarchy provided a behavioral norm that focused and intensified the realist drive for national power. Establishment of Japan’s honor, of its reputation for power in relation to other nations, became a goal sanctioned by inherited values and and norms.”124
Yet the end result of this drive for power, honor, and reputation was Japan’s complete destruction and subsequent occupation by the United States. There can be no justification for a foreign policy that consciously propels a state into a war against an inherently undefeatable enemy. By the late 1930s, a fatal abyss had opened between Japan’s imperial ambitions and its material capacity to fulfill them. Japan simply did not have the resources to police Korea and Manchuria, conquer China, invade Southeast Asia, and defeat the United States in the Pacific. Japan lacked the necessary industrial strength, and what modest manufacturing base it did possess critically depended on imported oil and other commodities from the United States. Indeed, Japan’s expanding war on the Asian mainland made it more dependent on imported U.S. commodities and finished goods. Japanese leaders refused to recognize the limits of Japan’s power, despite the warnings of Nomohan and a continuing war in China they could never bring to a satisfactory conclusion. The very fact that Japanese leaders would consider sequential wars with the United States and the Soviet Union at a time when Japan was already militarily overstretched in China testifies to a fatal blindness to the strategic necessity of maintaining some reasonable harmony between political ambitions and military capacity. Like the Germans in both world wars, the Japanese seemed to believe that superior prowess at the operational level of war could and would—somehow—redeem reckless strategic decisions.125 And again like the Germans, the Japanese, in the celebration of their own nationalism, were utterly insensitive to the nationalism of others.
Honor may have dictated the Japanese decision for war in 1941, but “suicide before dishonor” was a policy choice the Japanese might have avoided had Tokyo been willing and able to temper its imperial ambitions and accept some measure of economic dependence on the United States. For Japan, the prosperous and relatively democratic 1920s and the postwar decades as an economic powerhouse and ally of the United States demonstrate 20th-century possibilities other than the path of autarky through aggression. The 1930s and 1940s were a tragic and—for Japan’s victims—murderous detour from what might have been—and later was. For Japan in the 20th century, good relations with the United States were always a prerequisite for a secure Japan, whereas war with the United States was always going to be a disaster.
Still, it cannot be denied that, in threatening Japan’s economic destruction (and consequent military impoverishment), the United States placed the Japanese in a position in which the only choices open to them were war or subservience. “Never inflict upon another major military power a policy which would cause you yourself to go to war unless you are fully prepared to engage that power militarily,” cautions Roland Worth, Jr., in his No Choice But War: The United States Embargo against Japan and the Eruption of War in the Pacific. “And don’t be surprised that if they do decide to retaliate, that they seek out a time and a place that inflicts maximum harm and humiliation upon your cause.”126 Roosevelt called the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor “unprovoked.” Was it?
Record, Jeffrey. Japan's decision for war in 1941: some enduring lessons. Strategic Studies Institute, 2009.