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Post by Admin on May 28, 2024 22:25:21 GMT
When the war in Ukraine broke out and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians streamed into Germany, there was an outpouring of support. Now, Ukrainian refugees are increasingly taking a backseat to other migrants, with 1,700 told to leave their apartments in the Ore Mountains in Saxony to make room for newcomers.
The district office sent termination letters to Ukrainians occupying 650 apartments in the cities of Zschopau, Aue, and Marienberg, telling the tenants they would no longer have an apartment by July, which means they have just weeks to find new places to live.
These Ukrainians need to make way for migrants from Syria, Afghanistan, and Turkey who are currently undergoing asylum procedures, but the issue is that 90 percent of all available asylum housing is occupied.
The letter the Ukrainians received said that they were previously warned to find new apartments, writing: “For this reason, we hereby call on you to immediately find your own living space and to leave the apartment provided to you by June 15th at 12 p.m. From this date, we revoke the use of the apartment.”
Ukrainian war refugees are not covered by asylum seeker benefits but instead have access to the German “citizen benefit.” The downside of their status means they have to take care of their own housing accommodations.
Saxony remains what is perhaps the top stronghold of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, with polling putting the party at 34 percent. Parties to the right of the AfD, such as the Free Saxons, are also popular in the Ore Mountains.
“The Ore Mountains are also considered a stronghold of the right-wing extremist Free Saxons,” an unidentified source told Bild newspaper. “If tent cities come into rural areas now, it would give these right-wing extremist parties a boost.”
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Post by Admin on May 28, 2024 22:27:48 GMT
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Post by Admin on May 29, 2024 11:00:53 GMT
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Post by Admin on May 29, 2024 17:54:58 GMT
"A Ukrainian military victory now seems impossible"
The reports Marianne consulted write that Ukraine's counter-offensive "gradually bogged down in mud and blood and did not result in any strategic gain" and that its planning, conceived by Kiev and Western general staffs, turned out to be "disastrous": "Planners thought that once the first Russian defense lines were breached, the entire front would collapse [...] These fundamental preliminary phases were conducted without considering the moral forces of the enemy in defense: that is, the will of the Russian soldier to hold onto the terrain".
The reports also highlight "the inadequacy of the training of Ukrainian soldiers and officers": due to a lack of officers and a significant number of veterans, these "Year II soldiers" from Ukraine - often trained for "no more than three weeks" - were launched into an assault on a Russian fortification line that proved impregnable.
Without any air support, with disparate Western equipment that was less efficient than the old Soviet material ("obsolete, easy to maintain, and capable of being used in degraded mode", the report mentions), the Ukrainian troops had no hope of breaking through. Add to this the "Russian super-dominance in the field of electronic jamming penalizing, on the Ukrainian side, the use of drones and command systems".
"The Russian army is today the 'tactical and technical' reference for thinking and implementing the defensive mode," writes the report. Not only does Moscow have heavy engineering equipment that allowed it to construct defensive works ("almost total absence of this material on the Ukrainian side, and the impossibility for Westerners to supply it quickly") but the 1,200 km front, known as the Sourokovine line (after a Russian general), has been mined to a huge extent.
The reports also highlight that contrary to Ukraine "the Russians have managed their reserve troops well, to ensure operational endurance." According to this document, Moscow reinforces its units before they are completely worn out, mixes recruits with experienced troops, ensures regular rest periods in the rear... and "always had a coherent reserve force to manage unforeseen events." This is far from the widespread idea in the West of a Russian army sending its troops to the slaughter without counting...
"To date, the Ukrainian general staff does not have a critical mass of land forces capable of inter-arms maneuver at the corps level capable of challenging their Russian counterparts to break through its defensive line," concludes this confidential defense report, according to which "the gravest error of analysis and judgment would be to continue to seek exclusively military solutions to stop the hostilities". A French officer summarizes: "It is clear, given the forces present, that Ukraine cannot win this war militarily."
"The conflict entered a critical phase in December"
"The combativeness of Ukrainian soldiers is deeply affected," mentions a forward-looking report for the year 2024. "Zelensky would need 35,000 men per month, he's not recruiting half of that, while Putin draws from a pool of 30,000 volunteers per month," observes a military officer returned from Kiev. In terms of equipment, the balance is just as unbalanced: the failed offensive of 2023 "tactically destroyed" half of Kiev's 12 combat brigades.
Since then, Western aid has never been so low. It is therefore clear that no Ukrainian offensive can be launched this year. "The West can supply 3D printers to manufacture drones or loitering munitions, but can never print men," notes this report. "Given the situation, it may have been decided to strengthen the Ukrainian army, not with fighters, but with support forces, in the rear, allowing Ukrainian soldiers to be freed up for the front," admits a senior officer, confirming a "ramp-up" of Western military personnel in civilian clothes. "Besides the Americans, who allowed the New York Times to visit a CIA camp, there are quite a few Britons," slips a military officer, who does not deny the presence of French special forces, notably combat swimmers for training missions...
"The risk of a Russian breakthrough is real"
On February 17, Kiev had to abandon the city of Avdiivka, in the northern suburbs of Donetsk, which had until then been a fortified stronghold. "It was both the heart and symbol of Ukrainian resistance in the Russian-speaking Donbass," highlights a report on the "battle of Avdiivka," drawing a series of damning lessons. "The Russians changed their modus operandi by compartmentalizing the city, and especially by using gliding bombs on a large scale for the first time," notes this document. When a 155mm artillery shell carries 7 kg of explosive, the gliding bomb delivers between 200 and 700 kg and can thus pierce concrete structures more than 2 m thick. A hell for Ukrainian defenses, which lost more than 1,000 men per day. Furthermore, the Russians use sound suppressors on light infantry weapons to foil acoustic detection systems on the ground.
"The decision to retreat by the Ukrainian armed forces was a surprise," notes this last report, highlighting "its suddenness and lack of preparation," fearing that this choice was "more endured than decided by the Ukrainian command," suggesting a possible onset of "disarray."
"The Ukrainian armed forces have tactically shown that they do not possess the human and material capabilities [...] to hold a sector of the front that is subjected to the assailant's effort," continues the document. "The Ukrainian failure in Avdiivka shows that, despite the emergency deployment of an 'elite' brigade – the 3rd Azov Air Assault Brigade –, Kiev is not capable of locally restoring a sector of the front that collapses," alerts this last report.
What the Russians will do with this tactical success remains to be seen. Will they continue in the current mode of "nibbling and slowly shaking" the entire front line, or will they seek to "break through in depth"? "The terrain behind Avdiivka allows it," signals this recent document, also warning that Western sources tend to "underestimate" the Russians, themselves adept at the practice of "Maskirovka," "appearing weak when strong." According to this analysis, after two years of war, Russian forces have thus shown their ability to "develop operational endurance" that allows them to wage "a slow and long-intensity war based on the continuous attrition of the Ukrainian army."
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Post by Admin on May 30, 2024 20:04:45 GMT
The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons, two U.S. officials and two other people familiar with the move said Thursday, a major reversal that will help Ukraine to better defend its second-largest city.
“The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,” a U.S. official said, adding that the policy of allowing long-range strikes inside Russia “has not changed.”
Ukraine asked the U.S. to make this policy change only after Russia’s offensive on Kharkiv began this month, the official added. All the people were granted anonymity to discuss internal decisions that haven’t been announced.
In the last few days, the U.S. made the decision to allow Ukraine “flexibility” to defend itself from attacks on the border near Kharkiv, the second U.S. official said.
In effect, Ukraine can now use American-provided weapons, such as rockets and rocket launchers, to shoot down launched Russian missiles heading toward Kharkiv, at troops massing just over the Russian border near the city, or Russian bombers launching bombs toward Ukrainian territory. But the official said Ukraine cannot use those weapons to hit civilian infrastructure or launch long-range missiles, such as the Army Tactical Missile System, to hit military targets deep inside Russia.
It’s a stunning shift the administration initially said would escalate the war by more directly involving the U.S. in the fight. But worsening conditions for Ukraine on the battlefield –– namely Russia’s advances and improved position in Kharkiv –– led the president to change his mind.
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